In a letter to the City of Larkspur this spring, a developer gave a plain reason for changing plans at 1000 Drakes Landing Road. The landowner was selling, and the two sides had "negotiated a land price that would not be feasible with for rent housing." That sentence turned a 19-townhome rental project into a 19-townhome ownership project. It also gave Larkspur its first deed-restricted moderate-income homes for sale in the current housing cycle.
For buyers comparing central Marin towns, this explains more than one project. Larkspur's new homes are coming in as attached, for-sale townhomes on small infill sites. Land cost, the city's inclusionary rules and the slow pace of permits are all working toward the same result: the middle of Larkspur's price range is where new supply is arriving, and only a few homes at a time.
What the Land Price Did at Drakes Landing
The 0.8-acre site sits between Bon Air Center and Highway 101. It was approved in 2024 as rental housing in four buildings of two- and three-story townhomes. The 2024 city plan set shows two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath units, with two parking spaces for 18 of the 19 homes and one space for the last.
The approved rental plan included four deed-restricted homes: three for low-income households and one for a moderate-income household. In March, AJ Craig Development asked the city for an "alternative equivalent action." The company offered to sell the homes instead of renting them, provided all four affordable units could meet moderate-income guidelines. On May 6, 2026, the City Council approved Resolution 28/26 by a unanimous vote, with no public speakers at the hearing.
Larkspur's own rules show why the switch made sense to the developer. According to the Marin Independent Journal's May 11 report, the city usually requires a for-sale project to set aside 5% of homes for low-income households, 5% for moderate-income households and 10% for above-moderate-income households. A rental version of the project would have required more low-income homes. Under the approved change, Drakes Landing becomes 20% moderate-income. A moderate-income home sells for more than a low-income home, and sale proceeds arrive at closing instead of over years of rent. Once the landowner set a price, the project's economics depended on those differences.
The city saw value in the change too. Andrew Mogensen, the community development director, said:
"We have not entitled any deed-restricted moderate-income ownership units, during this current housing cycle we're in, so that would be the very first in this housing bracket."
The project's timing is uncertain. In May it was in construction-plan review. A September 2026 page from the housing advocacy group Call Marin Home lists it as approved but "not expected to move forward." That same page still describes the older rental and low-income mix and gives no reason for its view. We found no city or developer update after May confirming either outcome. For now, the safest reading is an approved project with no start date.
Magnolia Village Is Already Being Built
On Magnolia Avenue at Estelle Avenue, the same kind of project is further along. A Marin IJ photo from March 27, 2026 shows a crew working on the townhomes. Edge Development Group is the project's owner, according to AJ Craig Development, which provides project services. Marketing for the community now says the homes are coming in 2027, but it gives no exact move-in date and no public pricing.
The two projects side by side:
| Magnolia Village | 1000 Drakes Landing Road | |
|---|---|---|
| Location | Magnolia Ave. at Estelle Ave. | Between Bon Air Center and Hwy 101 |
| Total homes | 20 townhomes | 19 townhomes |
| Market-rate homes | 16, three or four bedrooms, about 1,694 to 2,328 sq. ft. | 15, two bedrooms, two and a half baths |
| Deed-restricted homes | 4, four bedrooms and three baths, about 1,420 sq. ft. | 4, all moderate-income ownership |
| Status | Under construction, marketed for 2027 | Approved for sale in May 2026, no start date |
The Magnolia Village figures come from the 2022 plan set, which divided the four affordable homes into two low-income and two moderate-income units. That plan set is the latest public spec, but it is not a sales sheet, and final floor plans may be different. In its March 18, 2026 housing report, the city said the deed restrictions for the eight affordable homes across both projects were still being worked out with the developers.
Where These Homes Fit in Larkspur's Price Range
The townhome segment matters because Larkspur's recent sales already include more lower-priced homes than nearby towns. In August 2026, the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services MLS recorded 11 residential sales in its Larkspur area. They averaged $1,130,682 and spent an average of 59 days on market. In the same report, Mill Valley's 16 sales averaged $2,204,063 with 27 average days on market, and Corte Madera's six sales averaged $1,933,950 with 33 days. BAREIS lists Greenbrae as a separate area and recorded no Greenbrae sales that month.
Those Larkspur figures combine every type of residential sale, and the BAREIS area report does not separate houses from condos and townhomes. The Larkspur average is still well below the August 2026 Marin County median for single-family detached homes, which the California Association of Realtors reported at $1,650,500. That was up 8.4% from August 2025. BAREIS's countywide median for August, which combines property types, was $1,372,500. A Larkspur average this low points to a sales mix with many attached homes. It also means a single month's figure can move sharply depending on which types of homes happened to close.
Supply in the county is also tight. C.A.R. reported Marin's active listings in August 2026 were 28.6% below a year earlier, and its unsold inventory index stood at 2.7 months. Because so few homes are listed, a Larkspur buyer looking for a three- or four-bedroom home in Larkspur that is newer than most of the town's housing has very few options. The 16 market-rate Magnolia Village townhomes, three and four bedrooms in walking distance of downtown, add to exactly that part of the market.
The Pipeline Is Smaller Than the Headlines
Larkspur must permit 979 new homes by 2031 under the state housing mandate. Through 2025 it had permitted 96, including 10 in 2025. City Manager Dan Schwarz said developers only began working seriously with the new site rules in the six months before that March report, because Larkspur's housing element was approved in October 2024.
The larger sites still have a long way to go. The city's March 2026 presentation listed 2000 Larkspur Landing, with 320 units, and The Exchange at 700 to 900 Larkspur Landing, with 235 units, as anticipated applications. Neither had been approved or started. Until those projects move, near-term new construction in Larkspur comes down to a few dozen townhomes on two infill sites. A buyer planning a purchase for 2027 can treat Magnolia Village as real new supply. Drakes Landing is a possibility, and the Landing sites are further off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who can buy the deed-restricted townhomes? The final terms have not been published for either project. The Marin Housing Authority runs the general below-market-rate homeownership program for Larkspur, but neither project has confirmed MHA as its administrator. Under MHA's general rules, buyers must be first-time homebuyers, meet income and asset limits, complete HUD-approved homebuyer education, live in the home as their main residence and be chosen by lottery.
What income counts as "moderate"? MHA's FY2026 moderate-income limit is 120% of area median income. That works out to $168,650 for a one-person household and $240,950 for a four-person household, effective May 1, 2026. These are income limits, not purchase prices.
Can a deed-restricted home be resold at market price later? Under MHA's general program, resale restrictions last permanently. Later resale prices are capped by the lesser of consumer price inflation or growth in area median income. The two Larkspur projects have not published their own terms, so check the recorded deed restriction before making an offer.
Are prices or HOA dues public yet? No. As of early October 2026, neither project has published a price range or HOA amount.
If you own a home in Larkspur, new townhomes on Magnolia Avenue will soon be part of the sales comparisons your buyers look at. If you are buying, they may change which homes you compare. Kris Klein can show where your home falls among Larkspur's condos, townhomes and single-family houses. Request a Home Valuation to see how your property compares as this new supply arrives.
